A tropical storm that formed in the Caribbean could strengthen into a hurricane, bringing high winds and storm surges to Cuba and Florida later this week. Tropical Depression Idalia is swirling near the Yucatan Peninsula and is forecast to move northwestward through a strengthening mid-level ridge over the eastern Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Idalia has sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), but it is expected to increase in intensity well before reaching Florida. The warm waters of the western Caribbean — including the southeastern Gulf of Mexico — fuel Idalia. Those hot waters extend to deep ocean depths, limiting the chance of Idalia encountering significant upwelling that could cool it.
The warm waters also reduce the chances that Idalia will encounter dry air from a cold front moving over the northern Atlantic. Idalia will be aided by the wind shear of a subtropical jet streaming northward.
Currently, Idalia is located west-southwest of the Bahamas and southeast of Cuba. A NOAA buoy 42056 located just east of the center has reported a maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 45 mph, which is within the criteria for a Category 1 hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Idalia’s center in a few hours.
The NHC has placed Idalia under a “high risk” of impacting the Florida coast. The Big Bend region stretching between Florida’s panhandle and peninsula — is the most vulnerable, with potentially life-threatening damaging winds, heavy rains, and storm surge flooding.
Idalia is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall in Florida on Wednesday. The NHC’s latest track projection has Idalia arriving somewhere along the west Florida coastline. The storm will likely curve northward and track across the central Gulf Coast to the Carolinas.
A statewide state of emergency was declared by Governor Ron DeSantis Sunday, and the NHC warned that the weather event “is poised to wreak havoc on Florida’s west coast, the Panhandle, and southern Georgia.”
The storm is expected to reach Category 2 strength with sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph when it makes landfall in the Big Bend area of the Florida Peninsula.
Idalia is projected to continue northward and regain Category 2 strength before reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will likely accelerate when it moves over the Loop Current, a ribbon of more profound, warmer water from the western Caribbean that flows north into the southeastern Gulf. The Loop Current can act as a “funnel,” delivering intense hurricane-force winds and causing destructive coastal flooding along the Florida Panhandle. Idalia may produce life-threatening storm surge flooding and coastal erosion along that stretch. A storm surge watch is in effect for parts of the Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Chokoloskee, including Tampa Bay. Heavy rains and isolated tornadoes are also possible.
