Israel will “soon” implement a plan to replace Hamas’ governance in northern Gaza, according to Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi. Speaking at Reichman University’s annual Herzliya Conference, Hanegbi stated that the collapse of Hamas’ military capabilities will create opportunities “for countries that desire an alternative government to Hamas in Gaza, led by local leadership in Gaza.”
He did not give any details about what such a plan might look like. It could involve elections for a government supported by the Palestinian Authority (PA) and moderate Arab states, or it might rely on an alternative to the PA, such as a coalition of municipal leaders. But such a move will likely not come soon enough to help the 1.4 million people of Gaza, nearly 90% of whom have been forcibly displaced by Israeli bombardment and besiegement.
There is a widespread feeling that Israeli officials are preparing the ground for Gaza’s depopulation, even if they do not explicitly say so. Israel’s prime minister and other cabinet members have called for the resettlement of the population. Some have also suggested that Gaza residents who do not support Hamas should be forced to leave. Humanitarian organizations are hesitant to make a public evaluation of Israeli responsibility for the suffering in Gaza because doing so might jeopardize their neutrality. But the conditions in Gaza are so desperate that voices of condemnation will probably grow louder.
A resettlement effort will be difficult and costly. Israel will be able to control the entry of aid money, but it will not be able to pay for the total cost of rebuilding. That will lead to a significant securitization of the process, frustrating the organizations that work in Gaza. More is needed to overcome the massive damage to infrastructure, such as hospitals, whose functioning is hampered by shortages of supplies and damaged facilities.
The current PA has no credibility in Gaza, and Egypt is unwilling to play the role of a mediator. A Palestinian-run alternative to Hamas can be installed, but it will take time. The United States can provide support, but it is not in a position to play a significant role.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned on Sunday that the depopulation of Gaza must not happen by force, saying that Palestinian civilians “must be able to return to their homes as soon as it is safe to do so.” His remarks came in response to comments by two far-right Israeli ministers who called for Palestinians to be forced out of Gaza.
