The world’s top security alliance faces fresh strains when its leaders meet in Lithuania on Tuesday for a summit set to be dominated by the alliance’s response to Russia’s war on Ukraine and Kyiv’s push for membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to come to Vilnius to make the case to NATO’s 31 leaders that Kyiv deserves to join the alliance once Russia’s war ends, a step that would give Western governments leverage to deter Putin and boost Ukrainian fighters’ morale in their grueling counteroffensive. Despite the rhetoric, it remains unlikely that Kyiv will be granted a clear roadmap. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is instead focusing on the potential for the alliance to extend air defense capabilities and logistical support into Ukraine, even without the formal membership process that began in 2008 with the launch of a Membership Action Plan or MAP. NATO has already waived that requirement for Finland and Sweden, which are expected to become members next year.
However, even if allies agree to deliver the weapons and support, NATO’s munition stockpiles are being used up much faster than the alliance’s defense ministers can produce more ammunition. NATO officials have discussed creating a multinational munition warehouse for Ukraine, but it is unclear whether the effort will be finished in time to meet needs when hostilities end.
Other issues are likely to focus on the US-led alliance’s relationship with Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is reportedly considering holding up Sweden’s NATO admission over Stockholm’s leniency toward Kurdish armed groups and individuals associated with his country’s failed 2016 coup attempt. Officials say Biden will urge Erdogan to drop his objections as the White House expects a new Turkish government that will be more receptive to NATO’s mission in the region.
A final issue is that NATO members in Eastern Europe have pushed for more clarity on the alliance’s commitment to Ukraine, as they believe only bringing the country under its collective defense umbrella can deter Putin and bolster the country’s defense capabilities. Some of those countries are still reeling from Moscow’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and are keen to demonstrate to Putin that Western governments stand with Ukraine.
Those disagreements are a reminder that NATO, established to unite Europe after the Cold War, is a multi-polar organization with internal politics. Still, the alliance’s unity on Russia appears more vital than ever. Despite differences, the divisions seem less deep than in the past when many members feared Trump would turn his back on the alliance. Any fissure or lack of solidarity provides an opportunity for those who oppose NATO’s mission. NATO members are committed to ensuring that doesn’t happen again.
